The Backdrop
MPP’s are back in their ridings for a constituency week. The legislature will resume on May 27th for the final three weeks of the spring session.
PC’s retain a comfortable lead over opponents
In Abacus Data’s latest poll, the PC’s have dropped slightly to 39% from last month’s 41%. Both the Liberals and NDP support is unchanged from last month, at 25% and 21% respectively. Premier Ford continues to enjoy a commanding lead through the mid-point of the election cycle, without significant movement in the numbers that would cause political impact.
Much has been said about the need for the Liberals to define leader Bonnie Crombie and combat the negative attacks that have been far reaching on social and traditional media. Crombie recently announced policy designed to claim some of the PC’s territory on the right-of centre (more on this to follow).
The push by NDP Marit Stiles to overturn Speaker Ted Arnott’s ban on keffiyehs in the legislature does not seem to have had an impact on public support. Most likely, it was a greater play to help solidify support within her own party and to quiet some of the internal dissension that arose after MPP Sarah Jama was kicked out of the NDP caucus.
Province taking measures to improve road safety
Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria tabled the Safer Roads and Communities Act, designed to protect drivers from individuals who engage in impaired driving, stunt driving and auto theft. It would also strengthen the province’s commercial vehicle enforcement program.
Sarkaria said one in three road fatalities is caused by impaired driving and one in five involves large trucks. Under the proposed legislation, drivers convicted of impaired driving will have to install a breathalyzer device in their vehicle that must be used in order to start their car. Anyone convicted of causing death while driving intoxicated will face a lifetime ban from driving.
The legislation would penalize those convicted of auto thefts with a 10-year licence suspension for a first offence, a 15-year licence suspension for a second offence and ultimately a lifetime licence suspension for a third offence. Stunt drivers would also have their licence suspended for one year for a first conviction, three years for a second conviction and a lifetime suspension for a third conviction. In the past year, over 12,000 immediate roadside licence suspensions were issued for street racing and/or stunt driving.
Regarding commercial vehicles, Ministry of Transportation Enforcement Officers would be permitted to compel trucks and commercial vehicles to pull over and to confiscate fraudulent driver’s licenses. The government will also lead a comprehensive review of commercial driving training and hold stakeholder roundtables to seek industry and public feedback on measures to improve road safety.
Crombie’s Liberals are the party of….lower taxes?
After months of Doug Ford referring to Bonnie Crombie as the “Queen of the Carbon Tax” who never met a tax she didn’t like to raise, the Liberals have responded with a policy proposal designed to stake a claim on some of the province’s right-of-centre territory.
Liberal MPP Stephanie Bowman introduced the Cutting Taxes on Small Business Act, which would increase the deduction rate for small businesses to 9.9% from 8.8%. It would also increase the business limit for a taxation year for the purposes of the small business deduction to $600,000 from $500,000.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses attended the announcement in support of the private member’s bill. Speaking to reporters after the announcement, Bonnie Crombie said the Ontario Liberals are the tax cutters, while Doug Ford is only interested in supporting big business and his wealthy friends.
This is a smart, political decision by the Liberals. It will mute Ford’s criticism of Crombie, and we are so far away from the next election that the Liberals would not be expected to have all the details ironed out like they would if the policy was included in their election platform.
Federal government rejects Toronto’s request to decriminalize illicit drugs
The ask from the City was to decriminalize small amounts of illegal drugs for personal use within the city. A statement from Health Canada said the request was denied because of concerns with feasibility and ability for law enforcement to implement the model, protection of youth, and lack of support from the province of Ontario.
The decision came after a strongly worded letter was sent from Solicitor General Michael Kerzner and Health Minister Sylvia Jones to Toronto’s Medical Officer of Health Eileen de Villa, saying the province opposed her “misguided request”, and the Premier said he would fight “tooth and nail” to stop the decriminalization of drugs in Toronto. British Columbia has been granted approval for recriminalization after it launched a decriminalization pilot in January 2023. The province cited this as another reason why Toronto’s request should be denied.
After the federal government’s decision, Mayor Olivia Chow wrote to Prime Minister Trudeau and Premier Ford requesting a more coordinated approach to the opioid crisis that would include initiatives such as a 24/7 crisis centre, expanded housing programs and social supports.
Premier Ford took to “X” following the federal decision, with a succinct post: “Good.”
Financial Accountability Office predicts longer horizon for province to balance its books
The FAO released its 5-year outlook for the province’s economy and the provincial government’s finances. While it expects the budget deficit to be smaller than the government’s projection in 2023-2024, it projects a worsening deficit in 2024-2025 that will take until 2028-2029 to bring back to surplus. That timing is two years later than the government’s plan for balancing the budget.
The outlook also projects $1 billion less revenue in 2023-2024 than the government’s projection and by 2026-2027 it expects $3.9 billion less revenue than the government’s plan. It attributes the variance in projections to a less optimistic outlook for corporate tax revenue.
In terms of the province’s debt burden, the FAO expects the net debt-to-GDP ratio will remain stable at 38% before declining to 36% by 2028-2029. This falls under the government’s target of 40% debt-to-GDP.
The province’s GDP is expected to grow slowly over the 5-year horizon: 1.1% in 2024, 2% in 2025 and around 2.1% in each of the remaining three years.
